`{predictNMB}`

Rex Parsons

The next hour of your life

Who am I?
Who are you?
What is a clinical decision support system?
THE ENTIRE FIELD OF HEALTH ECONOMICS
coding with {predictNMB}

Who am I?

Currently:

PhD Candidate and Senior Research Assistant at AusHSI (QUT)

Previously:

Work

Data Analyst - IVF (City Fertility)

2019-2020

Research Assistant - Radiology (IMED)

2018-2019

Scientist - Medical Diagnostics (Ellume)

2016-2018

School

Master of Medical Statistics

2019-2020

BSc Biomed + Honours (Neuroscience)

2015-2017

BSc Phys(io/ical)therapy

2012-2014

Who are you?

What is a clinical Decision Support System?

annalise.ai’s chest x-ray decision support

Assesses chest x-ray for 124 possible outcomes
Ranks outcomes and communicates risk to user
Highlights areas of image that are influential to risk estimate

clinical prediction model
reduces/prioritises information
model interpretation for better decision (?)

What is a clinical prediction model?

Diagnostic

What is a clinical prediction model?

Prognostic

What is a clinical prediction model?

Prognostic

THE ENTIRE FIELD OF HEALTH ECONOMICS

What you need to know…

Healthcare systems are resource constrained
Health economics concerns how best to allocate resources to areas of greatest benefit
Some terms…

Quality-adjusted life years (QALYS)

Generic measure of disease burden that considers quality and duration of life

Willingness-to-pay (WTP)

“The maximum price at or below a customer would pay for a product”

AKA

“The price at which a healthcare payer is willing to pay for an additional quality-adjusted life year”

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)

\[ICER = \frac{Cost_{treatment}-Cost_{ref}}{QALY_{treatment}-QALY_{ref}}\]

ICER = Cost per additional QALY gained

if (ICER < WTP) {
  print("Treatment is cost-effective!")
}

Cost-effectiveness

Cost-effectiveness plot

(Incremental) Net Monetary Benefit

NMB: Summary of benefit in monetary terms

\[NMB = QALY \times WTP - Cost_{treatment}\] INB: Difference in NMB between two strategies

\[INB_{treatment} = NMB_{treatment} - NMB_{ref}\]

`{predictNMB}`

What is the expected health economic benefit of using a given (hypothetical) CDSS?

docs.ropensci.org/predictNMB/

install.packages("predictNMB")